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移民、工资与教育:一个劳动力市场均衡的结构模型

Immigration, Wages, and Education: A Labour Market Equilibrium Structural Model
Review of Economic Studies · 2017 · Joan Llull

中文摘要

近期分析移民工资效应的文献假设劳动力供给在教育-经验单元之间是固定的。本文偏离了这一假设,基于1967—2007年美国微观数据估计了一个劳动力市场均衡的动态离散选择模型。个体通过改变教育、参与率和/或职业来对移民作出调整。这些调整具有异质性:4.2—26.2%的壮年本土男性改变了职业;其中一些人转向白领职业并将教育年限增加约三年;另一些人则减少劳动力市场参与并将教育年限同样减少约三年。这些调整缓解了移民对工资和不平等的初始影响。与移民更为相似的本土人在即期受冲击最大,但也拥有更大的调整和分化空间。调整还在分布下尾工资效应的估计中产生了自选择偏误,模型对此进行了校正。

Abstract

Recent literature analysing wage effects of immigration assumes labour supply is fixed across education-experience cells. This article departs from this assumption estimating a labour market equilibrium dynamic discrete choice model on U.S. micro-data for 1967-2007. Individuals adjust to immigration by changing education, participation, and/or occupation. Adjustments are heterogeneous: 4.2-26.2% of prime-aged native males change their careers; of them, some switch to white-collar careers and increase education by about three years; others reduce labour market attachment and reduce education also by about three years. These adjustments mitigate initial effects on wages and inequality. Natives that are more similar to immigrants are the most affected on impact, but also have a larger margin to adjust and differentiate. Adjustments also produce a self-selection bias in the estimation of wage effects at the lower tail of the distribution, which the model corrects.
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