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研究如何影响政策:来自2,150个巴西市镇的实验证据

How Research Affects Policy: Experimental Evidence from 2,150 Brazilian Municipalities
American Economic Review · 2021 · Jonas Hjort、Diana Moreira、Gautam Rao、Juan Francisco Santini

中文摘要

研究发现能否改变政治领导人的信念与政策?我们利用对2,150个巴西市镇的实验来衡量市长对研究信息的需求与反应。在一项实验中,我们发现市长愿意付费了解评估研究的结果,并在获知研究结果后更新其信念。他们更看重大样本研究,而不区分来自富裕国家与贫穷国家的研究。在第二项实验中,我们发现,向市长告知关于一项简单且有效的政策(纳税人提醒信)的研究,会使该政策实施的概率增加10个百分点。

Abstract

Can research findings change political leaders’ beliefs and policies? We use experiments with 2,150 Brazilian municipalities to measure mayors’ demand for and response to research information. In one experiment, we find that mayors are willing to pay to learn the results of evaluation studies, and update their beliefs when informed of the findings. They value larger-sample studies more, while not distinguishing between studies in rich and poor countries. In a second experiment, we find that informing mayors about research on a simple and effective policy, taxpayer reminder letters, increases the probability the policy is implemented by 10 percentage points. (JEL D72, D78, D83, O17, O18)
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