常规偏向型技术变革与内生技能投资
Routine-Biased Technological Change and Endogenous Skill Investments
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Danyelle Branco", "affiliation": ["Escola de Economia de São Paulo"]}, {"name": "Bladimir Carrillo", "affiliation": ["Escola de Economia de São Paulo"]}, {"name": "Wilman J. Iglesias", "affiliation": ["University of Nebraska–Lincoln"]}]
中文摘要
我们考察个体如何为应对常规偏向型技术(routine-biased technology)而调整其教育投资。我们发现，在受机器人影响地区成长的个体更有可能完成学士学位，并经历收入的相对增长。技能溢价与机会成本的变化似乎驱动了这些效应。为解释这些发现，我们估计了一个内生技能获得模型，其中技能需求与供给的变化塑造了收入的路径。反事实模拟表明，除非提供足够慷慨的教育补贴，否则内生技能响应无法完全抵消自动化对收入的不利影响。（JEL I26, J22, J23, J24, J31）
Abstract
We investigate how individuals alter their educational investments in response to routine-biased technology. We find that individuals growing up in robot-impacted areas are more likely to complete a bachelor’s degree and experience a relative increase in earnings. Changes in the skill premium and opportunity cost appear to drive these effects. To interpret these findings, we estimate a model of endogenous skill acquisition where changes in the demand and supply of skills shape the path of earnings. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the endogenous skill response cannot fully undo the adverse earnings effects of automation unless there are sufficiently generous educational subsidies. (JEL I26, J22, J23, J24, J31)