恐怖主义与投票：德国右翼民粹主义的崛起

中文摘要

我们发现，右翼恐怖主义导致德国右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党（Alternative für Deutschland，AfD）的得票率显著上升。为识别因果效应，我们利用不同市镇之间恐怖袭击成功与未遂之间的准随机变异。利用德国社会经济面板调查（SOEP）这一个人纵向面板数据，我们发现，成功的恐怖袭击使个人更倾向于支持德国选择党，并更加担忧移民问题。各政党——尤其是德国选择党——会针对恐怖袭击调整其竞选纲领中的政治传播内容。总体而言，与既有研究不同，我们发现，在西方多党民主制度下，恐怖主义对右翼民粹主义的崛起具有重要影响。（JEL D72、D74、K42）

Abstract

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system. (JEL D72, D74, K42)