恐怖主义与投票：德国右翼民粹主义的兴起
Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Navid Sabet", "affiliation": ["Goethe University Frankfurt"]}, {"name": "Marius Liebald", "affiliation": ["Uppsala University"]}, {"name": "Guido Friebel", "affiliation": ["Goethe University Frankfurt", "Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Goethe-Institute United Kingdom"]}]
中文摘要
我们记录到，右翼恐怖主义导致德国右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党（AfD）的得票份额显著上升。为识别因果效应，我们利用了各市镇之间成功袭击与失败袭击之间的准随机变异。基于个体纵向面板数据 SOEP，我们发现成功的恐怖袭击使个体更倾向于支持 AfD 并更担忧移民问题。各政党——尤其是 AfD——会响应恐怖袭击而调整其选举宣言中的信息表达。总体而言，与既有研究相反，我们发现，在西方多党民主制度中，恐怖主义对右翼民粹主义的兴起具有重要影响。（JEL D72, D74, K42）
Abstract
We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system. (JEL D72, D74, K42)