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财政规则与政治人物选拔:来自意大利的理论与证据

Fiscal Rules and the Selection of Politicians: Theory and Evidence from Italy
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · Matteo Gamalerio、Federico Trombetta

中文摘要

财政规则,即对民选官员政策制定裁量权的约束,被广泛用于规范财政政策。本文利用意大利市镇数据,采用差分断点设计,提供了财政规则对市长候选人受教育程度产生负向影响的证据。这一效应由财政规则实质性限制政治人物行动空间的市镇所驱动。这些结果与一个关于财政规则和政治选拔的正式模型相一致。本文强调,减少裁量权可能会影响参与者群体的构成:它可能缓解政治分肥式支出,但也会对政治人物的受教育程度产生负向影响。(JEL D72、E62、H62、H72)

Abstract

Fiscal rules, or constraints on the policymaking discretion of elected officials, are widely used to regulate fiscal policies. Using data on Italian municipalities, we employ a difference-in-discontinuity design to provide evidence of the negative effect of fiscal rules on mayoral candidates’ education. Municipalities in which fiscal rules meaningfully restrict the action space of politicians drive the effect. These results are consistent with a formal model of fiscal rules and political selection. We highlight that reducing discretion may affect the composition of the pool of players: It may alleviate pork barrel spending but also negatively affect the education of politicians. (JEL D72, E62, H62, H72)
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