Reference Points for Retirement Behavior: Evidence from German Pension Discontinuities
中文摘要
本文研究围绕法定退休年龄的退休行为高度集中这一令人困惑的典型事实。为探究这一事实，我利用涵盖德国全体退休人员的行政数据，估计了对644个养老金收益断点的聚束反应。仅靠财务激励无法解释退休模式，但法定退休年龄存在很大的直接影响。我认为，将法定年龄设定为退休参照点这一框架提供了一种合理的解释。基于一个具有参照依赖的模型进行的模拟突出表明，通过养老金改革调整法定年龄是影响退休行为的有效政策。（JEL D91, H55, J26, J32）
Abstract
This paper studies the large concentration of retirement behavior around statutory retirement ages, a puzzling stylized fact. To investigate this fact, I estimate bunching responses to 644 pension benefit discontinuities, using administrative data on the universe of German retirees. Financial incentives alone cannot explain retirement patterns, but there is a large direct effect of statutory retirement ages. I argue that the framing of statutory ages as reference points for retirement provides a plausible explanation. Simulations based on a model with reference dependence highlight that shifting statutory ages via pension reforms is an effective policy to influence retirement behavior. (JEL D91, H55, J26, J32)