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与邻居一同投票:来自墨西哥国内迁移的证据

Voting with one’s neighbors: Evidence from migration within Mexico
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Frederico Finan、Enrique Seira、Alberto Simpser

中文摘要

我们利用墨西哥1200万登记选民的数据,研究近邻如何影响个人的投票倾向。为了识别这一效应,我们利用了由大约100万次搬迁决策导致的街区层面的特质性变异。我们发现,当个体搬到人们投票更多(更少)的街区时,他们自身也开始投票更多(更少)。我们表明,这一发现并非由于对社区的选择或决定投票率的基于地域的因素所致,而是同伴效应。与该论断一致,我们发现了未搬迁者的传染效应,并表明同一街区的邻居与居住在同一社区内不同街区的邻居相比,更有可能在完全相同的日期履行选举程序。

Abstract

We study how proximate neighbors affect one’s propensity to vote using data on 12 million registered voters in Mexico. To identify this effect, we exploit idiosyncratic variation at the neighborhood block level resulting from approximately one million relocation decisions. We find that when individuals move to blocks where people vote more (less) they themselves start voting more (less). We show that this finding is not the result of selection into neighborhoods or of place-based factors that determine turnout, but rather peer effects. Consistent with this claim, we find a contagion effect for non-movers and show that neighbors from the same block are much more likely to perform an electoral procedure on the same exact day as neighbors who live on different blocks within a neighborhood.
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