Does Local Politics Drive Tropical Land-Use Change? Property-Level Evidence from the Amazon
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Erik S. Katovich、Fanny Moffette
中文摘要
土地向农业的转化是热带地区面临的决定性环境挑战。我们构建了一个关于巴西亚马逊市政政治家和竞选捐助者地块上土地利用变化的新面板数据集，以评估地方政治可能驱动土地转换的渠道。通过估计势均力敌的市长选举附近的事件研究，我们发现大地主在所捐助的候选人任职期间统计显著地增加了大豆种植。这表明大地主投资于政治影响力以克服农业集约化的障碍。反过来，接受大地主捐赠的市长则施行有利于农业的治理——增加农业推广支出和农村信贷分配。虽然农业推广对市长的捐助者“投桃报李”，但其目标并不精确。我们记录了对非登记在捐助者名下土地的巨大溢出效应，导致这些地区的环境违规增加。结果揭示了庇护关系与特殊利益如何驱动亚马逊的土地利用变化。
Abstract
Abstract Land conversion to agriculture is a defining environmental challenge for tropical regions. We construct a novel panel dataset of land-use changes on the properties of municipal politicians and campaign donors in the Brazilian Amazon to assess channels through which local politics may drive land conversion. Estimating event studies around close mayoral elections, we find that large landholders significantly increase soy cultivation while the candidate they donated to is in office. This suggests that landholders invest in political influence to overcome barriers to agricultural intensification. In turn, mayors who receive landholder donations govern in favour of agriculture—increasing spending on agricultural promotion and distribution of rural credit. While agricultural promotion ‘returns the favour’ for mayors’ donors, it is not precisely targeted. We document large spillovers onto lands not registered to donors, resulting in increased environmental violations in these areas. Results reveal how patronage and special interests drive land-use change in the Amazon.