The Rise and Fall of the Price-to-Rent Ratio: Why Are Superstar Cities Different?
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Christian A. L. Hilber、Andreas Mense
中文摘要
在大多数国家，2000年代和2010年代期间，房价相对于租金大幅上涨。然而，这一趋势在空间或时间上并不一致。房价租金比在各国的明星城市中增长得更为强劲，在经济扩张期飙升，但在经济危机期下降。这些典型事实与一个模型相一致，该模型具有供给价格弹性的空间差异，以及触发租金增长预期持久变化的自相关局部需求变化。模型预测，在供给缺乏弹性的区位，正（负）需求冲击会触发房价租金比持续数年的上升（下降）。更强的需求变化持久性和更低的贴现率放大了这一效应。我们使用英格兰的面板数据检验了模型预测。我们的工具变量一阶差分估计表明，1997年至2018年间大伦敦地区房价租金比153%的增幅中，有一半以上可以由我们的机制解释。
Abstract
Abstract In most countries, during the 2000s and 2010s, house prices rose substantially relative to rents. This trend, however, was not uniform across space or time. The price-to-rent ratio increased much more strongly in the countries’ superstar cities, surged during economic expansion periods, but fell during times of economic crisis. These stylised facts are consistent with a model that features spatial variation in the supply-price elasticity and autocorrelated local demand changes that trigger persistent changes in rent-growth expectations. The model predicts that in supply-inelastic locations, positive (negative) demand shocks trigger increases (decreases) in the price-to-rent ratio that last several years. Stronger demand-change persistence and lower discount rates amplify this effect. We test our model predictions using panel data for England. Our instrumental-variable first-difference estimates suggest that over half of the 153% increase in the price-to-rent ratio between 1997 and 2018 in Greater London can be explained by our mechanism.