中文摘要
收入与民主之间的关系在实证和理论上仍存争议。我们提出一个更广阔的视角，超越对收入—民主关联的单向、单一因果解读，聚焦于从经济停滞向持续增长转型这一被忽视的作用。我们用一个长期增长与民主化的整合模型来阐明我们的论点，得出两点一般性洞见。第一，并非更高的收入水平本身，而是持续增长的启动提高了民主化的可能性。直观而言，人力资本等生产要素的更快速积累减少了利益冲突，从而削弱了精英对民主的抵制。第二，当民主化发生在向增长转型之后时，民主的经济效应会被放大。我们通过重新审视有影响的实证研究，并利用向持续增长转型时间上的变异，来检验这些新预测的有效性。我们的证据与理论预测一致，为解读早先参差不齐的发现提供了新的启示。
Abstract
Abstract The relation between income and democracy remains debated, empirically and theoretically. We propose a broader perspective that goes beyond a uni-directional and mono-causal interpretation of the income-democracy nexus by focusing on the neglected role of the transition from economic stagnation to sustained growth. We illustrate our argument with an integrated model of long-run growth and democratisation that delivers two general insights. First, rather than higher income levels per se, it is the onset of sustained growth that increases the likelihood of democratisation. Intuitively, the faster accumulation of productive factors, such as human capital, reduces conflicts of interest, and hence the elite’s resistance to democracy. Second, the economic consequences of democracy are amplified when democratisation occurs after the transition to growth. We explore the validity of these novel predictions by revisiting influential empirical studies and exploiting variation in the timing of the transition to sustained growth. Our evidence is consistent with the theoretical predictions, shedding new light on the interpretation of earlier mixed findings.