异质性通胀预期的总量含义：个体经验的作用

Abstract We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectation-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers’ heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an anchoring-to-the-past mechanism. Using survey data, we show that the model replicates US consumers’ inflation expectations and their heterogeneity across cohorts. We introduce this mechanism into a New Keynesian model and find that heterogeneous expectations anchor aggregate responses to the agents’ inflation history, producing sluggish expectation dynamics. Central banks should be active to prevent inflationary episodes that agents will remember far into the future.