The Economic Journal · 2026 · Karen B. Clay、Ethan Schmick
中文摘要
本文考察了早期生命阶段的农业冲击对美国南方黑人与白人儿子的长期影响。棉铃象鼻虫是美国历史上最具破坏性的农业害虫之一，它减少了棉花产量，并导致南方经济发生重大变化。该冲击对在其到来之前和之后出生的儿童的影响并非先验显而易见；它既可能为正也可能为负，取决于冲击之后出生的儿童是否经历了更好或更差的早期生命条件。为考察该冲击对黑人与白人父亲及儿子的实证效应，本文分析利用了 Census Tree（Buckles et al., 2023）的跨人口普查链接，以及按种族区分的双重差分与三重差分实证策略。我们发现，棉铃象鼻虫的到来在长期内使黑人儿子受益，这反映在1940年的两项收入衡量指标——工资与推算收入——上，并且未对白人儿子造成损害。这些差异性收益缩小了不平等。我们提供了实证与历史证据，说明了一系列机制，通过这些机制，黑人儿子相对于白人儿子的早期生命条件可能得到改善。
Abstract
Abstract This paper investigates the long-run impacts of an early-life agricultural shock on Black and White sons in the US South. The boll weevil, one of the most destructive agricultural pests in American history, decreased cotton production and resulted in substantial changes to the Southern economy. The impact of this shock on children who were born before and after its arrival is not a priori obvious; it could be positive or negative depending on whether children born after the shock experienced better or worse early-life conditions. To examine the empirical effects of this shock on Black and White fathers and sons, the analysis makes use of cross-census links from the Census Tree (Buckles et al., 2023) and race-specific difference-in-differences and triple difference empirical strategies. We find that the arrival of the boll weevil benefited Black sons in the long run, as reflected in two 1940 measures of income—wages and imputed income—and did not harm White sons. These differential gains decreased inequality. We provide empirical and historical evidence on a range of mechanisms through which early-life conditions may have improved for Black sons relative to White sons.