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适应城市化兴起:新城是良好的解决方案吗?

Accommodating the Rise in Urbanisation: Are New Towns a Good Solution?
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Gabriel Loumeau

中文摘要

本文研究了新城(即规划的大型城市副中心)作为应对全球城市化兴起的核心工具的表现。本文提出了一个适用于研究大规模城市总体规划的空间可量化一般均衡框架。随后,利用该框架考察了20世纪70年代在巴黎大都市区开发的五座新城的均衡效应。截至2015年,新城的开发似乎增加了大都市区人口(+18%)和大都市区国内生产总值(+11%),并缩短了平均通勤时间(−6.9%)。对巴黎大都市区得出的结果,通过对1992年至2012年间全球开发的全部314座新城采用双重差分方法进行了外部验证。

Abstract

Abstract This paper studies the performance of New Towns, that is, planned large urban sub-centres, as a central tool to accommodate the global rise in urbanisation. A spatial quantifiable general equilibrium framework suitable to study large-scale urban master plans is presented. The framework is then used to investigate the equilibrium effects of five New Towns developed in the 1970s in Paris’s metropolitan area. By 2015, the development of New Towns appears to have increased metropolitan population ($+$18%), metropolitan gross domestic product ($+$11%) and reduced average commuting times (−6.9%). The results obtained for Paris’s metropolitan area are externally validated using a difference-in-differences approach on all 314 New Towns developed worldwide between 1992 and 2012.
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