页岩革命与石油市场的动态

中文摘要

我们构建并估计了一个世界石油市场的动态结构模型，以量化页岩革命的影响。我们将页岩革命建模为页岩生产成本下降，发现由此带来的页岩产量增加使油价在短期内下降24%，在页岩油转型完成后下降48%。当前油价波动率降低了8%至23%，具体幅度取决于时间期界。我们还发现，面对页岩产量的大幅增加，欧佩克核心成员国采取行动以保持其市场份额不变。

Abstract

Abstract We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8% to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find that OPEC core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.