Journal of the European Economic Association · 2023 · Julián Dı́az-Saavedra、Ramón Marimon、João Brogueira de Sousa
中文摘要
面对人口老龄化和就业率低迷的历史趋势，目前若干欧洲国家实行的现收现付制（PAYG）养老金系统在未来数十年将意味着巨大的经济与福利成本。在具有不完全保险市场和摩擦性劳动市场的代际交叠经济中，可在失业或退休时使用的就业基金能够提升生产效率和社会福利。通过适当的设计，可持续的“背包”就业基金（BP）能够极大地优于（以经济中的平均社会福利衡量）现有的现收现付制系统，并且帕累托优于养老金系统的完全私有化，以及标准的完全积累制确定缴费制养老金系统。我们在一个经过校准的西班牙经济模型中展示了这一点，通过比较不同养老金系统下老龄化转型的效应，并展示了如何通过从现收现付制向“背包”系统前置式转型来实现帕累托改进，同时最小化改革成本。
Abstract
Abstract Facing an ageing population and historical trends of low employment rates, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems, currently in place in several European countries, imply very large economic and welfare costs in the coming decades. In an overlapping generations economy with incomplete insurance markets and frictional labour markets, an employment fund, which can be used while unemployed or retired, can enhance production efficiency and social welfare. With an appropriate design, the sustainable Backpack employment fund (BP) can greatly outperform (measured by average social welfare in the economy) existing PAYG systems and also Pareto dominate a full privatization of the pension system, as well as a standard fully funded defined contribution pension system. We show this in a calibrated model of the Spanish economy, by comparing the effect of its ageing transition under these different pension systems and by showing how a front-loaded transition from the PAYG to the BP system can be Pareto improving, while minimizing the cost of the reform.