Journal of the European Economic Association · 2023 · Chang Ma、John Harold Rogers、Sili Zhou
中文摘要
我们考察了Covid-19之前六次现代健康危机所带来的即时效应与反弹效应。针对大量经济体横截面数据的时间序列模型表明，在疫情暴发当年，受影响经济体的实际GDP增长率相对未受影响经济体下降约2个百分点。GDP增长的反弹迅速而强劲，尤其是在与非健康危机相比较时。受教育程度较低的劳动者失业率更高且表现出更强的持续性，而女性失业的持续性显著高于男性。此外，大流行初期的负面效应及其反弹通过国际贸易具有经济传染性。在政府支出（尤其是医疗保健支出）首年反应规模较大的经济体中，大流行对GDP和失业的负面效应较小。我们的估计表明，Covid-19冲击对世界GDP增长的影响效应大约比过去大流行的平均水平严重四个标准差。
Abstract
Abstract We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate that real GDP growth falls by around 2 percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative initial effects of pandemics and bounce-back are economically contagious through international trade. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in economies with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic.