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古兰经与剑

The Quran and the Sword
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2023 · Emmanuelle Auriol、Jean‐Philippe Platteau、Thierry Verdier

中文摘要

本文阐明在由宗教神职人员代表的传统权威抵触制度改革且军方掌控镇压手段并可能发动政变的情境下,独裁者推动制度改革的意愿。我们表明,尽管独裁者始终希望拉拢军方,但对神职人员却未必如此。当独裁者军队的忠诚度较强而宗教运动的组织力量相当低时,便会出现仅拉拢军方的情况。此时可实施激进的制度改革。经验上,当代穆斯林国家占主导的政体是双重拉拢政体,其中独裁者采取双刃策略:通过放缓改革步伐取悦官方神职人员,并确保军方忠诚以镇压由神职人员领导的叛乱。

Abstract

Abstract This paper elucidates the willingness of an autocrat to push through institutional reforms in a context where traditional authorities represented by religious clerics are averse to them and where the military control the means of repression and can potentially stage a coup. We show that although the autocrat always wants to co-opt the military, this is not necessarily true of the clerics. Exclusive co-option of the military obtains where the loyalty of the autocrat’s army is strong while the organizational strength of religious movements is rather low. Radical institutional reforms can then be implemented. Empirically, the dominant regime in contemporary Muslim countries is the regime of double co-option where the autocrat resorts to a double-edged tactic: pleasing the official clerics by slowing the pace of reforms and ensuring the loyalty of the military so as to put down clerics-led rebellions.
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