Journal of the European Economic Association · 2023 · Olivier Coibion、Dimitris Georgarakos、Yuriy Gorodnichenko、Michael Weber
中文摘要
我们在一项使用Nielsen Homescan面板中超过20,000名美国消费者的随机对照试验中，比较了关于未来利率的前瞻性指引对家庭通胀和名义抵押贷款利率预期的因果效应，与关于通胀的沟通的效应。我们获取消费者的预期，随后提供22种不同形式的关于过去、当前和/或未来利率与通胀的信息。关于当前或未来利率的信息处理对利率和通胀预期具有相似且相互抵消的效应，导致对感知实际利率的有限传导。关于抵押贷款利率的信息对利率感知具有强得多的效应，且对通胀预期没有抵消效应，从而带来对感知实际利率大得多的变动。感知实际利率的修正因果导致了家庭事后耐用品购买的变动。
Abstract
Abstract We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers’ expectations, and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current, and/or future interest rates and inflation. Information treatments about current or future interest rates all have similar and offsetting effects on interest rate and inflation expectations, yielding limited pass-through into perceived real rates. Information about mortgage rates has much more powerful effects on interest rate perceptions, with no offsetting effects on inflation expectations, thereby delivering much larger changes in perceived real rates. Revisions in perceived real rates causally lead to changes in the ex-post purchases of durable goods by households.