不一致的退休时机

中文摘要

我们利用两个独立的数据集研究了时间偏好不一致对实际和计划的退休时机决策的影响。理论预测，双曲时间偏好会导致动态不一致的退休时机。在一项超过2000名参与者参与的在线实验中，我们发现时间不一致的参与者比时间一致的参与者平均提前1.75年退休。未退休参与者的计划退休年龄随年龄增长而下降。在时间不一致的参与者中，这种负向年龄效应的强度约为时间一致参与者的两倍。提前退休的诱惑似乎在临近退休的最后几年中上升。因此，时间不一致的参与者对其退休决策感到后悔的概率更高。我们在一项具有代表性的家庭调查（德国SAVE面板）中发现了相似的结果。将吸烟行为和透支使用作为时间偏好的代理变量，我们证实了时间不一致的参与者退休更早，且未退休者在面板内下调了其计划退休年龄。

Abstract

We study the effect of inconsistent time preferences on actual and planned retirement timing decisions in two independent data sets.Theory predicts that hyperbolic time preferences can lead to dynamically inconsistent retirement timing.In an online experiment with more than 2,000 participants, we find that time-inconsistent participants retire on average 1.75 years earlier than time-consistent participants do.The planned retirement age of nonretired participants decreases with age.This negative age effect is about twice as strong among time-inconsistent participants.The temptation of early retirement seems to rise in the final years of approaching retirement.Consequently, time-inconsistent participants have a higher probability of regretting their retirement decision.We find similar results for a representative household survey (German SAVE panel).Using smoking behavior and overdraft usage as time preference proxies, we confirm that time-inconsistent participants retire earlier and that nonretirees reduce their planned retirement age within the panel.