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借贷约束与返回及重复迁移的动态

Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration
Journal of Labor Economics · 2022 · Joseph‐Simon Görlach

中文摘要

随着劳务输出国工资赶上目的地国工资,迁移者在多个边际上进行调整,包括其停留时长、迁移次数以及海外储蓄额。本文结合墨西哥和美国数据,估计了一个考虑金融约束的消费、出境迁移与回迁的动态模型。墨西哥家庭收入的增加缩短了迁移时长,但增加了每个迁移者的迁移次数。对于低收入迁移者,墨西哥工资的上升对在墨西哥的消费支出产生了超出比例的影响,这源于汇回的储蓄。

Abstract

As wages in migrant-sending countries catch up with those in destinations, migrants adjust on several margins, including their duration of stay, the number of migrations they undertake, and the amount saved while abroad. This paper combines Mexican and US data to estimate a dynamic model of consumption, emigration, and remigration, accounting for financial constraints. An increase in Mexican household earnings shortens migration duration but raises the number of trips per migrant. For lower-income migrants, a rise in Mexican wages leads to a more than proportional effect on consumption expenditure in Mexico, arising from repatriated savings.
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