今日税收，明日福利

中文摘要

本文检验部分失业劳动者在失业保险待遇递减表的折点处集聚时，是否重视未来得以保留的待遇。我将Saez（2010）的集聚公式扩展到一个动态设定，以纳入与税收挂钩的未来待遇价值。这产生了基于集聚异质性的税收—待遇关联新检验。我在准实验中验证，降低未来保留待遇价值的失业保险延长期项目会导致更多集聚和更低的劳动供给。最后，对动态集聚公式的量化测算为强税收—待遇关联提供了额外支持。（JEL H24, H31, H71, J22, J65）

Abstract

This paper tests whether partially unemployed workers value future preserved benefits when they bunch at the kink of the unemployment insurance benefit-withdrawal schedule. I extend the bunching formula of Saez (2010) to a dynamic setting that accounts for the value of future benefits tied to taxation. This yields new tests of tax-benefit linkage based on bunching heterogeneity. I verify in quasi-experiments that UI extension programs that decrease the value of future preserved benefits lead to more bunching and to lower labor supply. Last, a quantification exercise of the dynamic bunching formula provides extra support for a strong tax-benefit linkage. (JEL H24, H31, H71, J22, J65)