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今日缴税,明日受益

Taxes Today, Benefits Tomorrow
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2025 · Thomas Le Barbanchon

中文摘要

本文检验部分失业劳动者在失业保险待遇退出机制的折点处聚束时,是否重视未来得以保留的待遇价值。我将Saez(2010)的聚束公式扩展至动态情境,将与征税相关联的未来待遇保留价值纳入考量,由此可基于聚束异质性对税收—待遇关联提出新的检验。我通过准实验验证,降低未来待遇保留价值的失业保险延期计划会导致更多聚束和更低的劳动供给。最后,运用动态聚束公式开展的量化分析为强有力的税收—待遇关联提供了额外支持。(JEL H24、H31、H71、J22、J65)

Abstract

This paper tests whether partially unemployed workers value future preserved benefits when they bunch at the kink of the unemployment insurance benefit-withdrawal schedule. I extend the bunching formula of Saez (2010) to a dynamic setting that accounts for the value of future benefits tied to taxation. This yields new tests of tax-benefit linkage based on bunching heterogeneity. I verify in quasi-experiments that UI extension programs that decrease the value of future preserved benefits lead to more bunching and to lower labor supply. Last, a quantification exercise of the dynamic bunching formula provides extra support for a strong tax-benefit linkage. (JEL H24, H31, H71, J22, J65)
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