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电视、健康与幸福感:西德的一项自然实验

Television, health, and happiness: A natural experiment in West Germany
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Adrian Chadi、Manuel Hoffmann

中文摘要

• 我们利用西德不同地区媒体接入的准随机差异。 • 有可信证据表明,电视对成年人的福祉具有正向影响。 • 来自多种来源的丰富调查数据揭示了人们对电视接入的行为反应。 • 电视与福祉之间的负相关很可能由自我选择驱动。 • 我们从公共政策的角度讨论了多方面的相关启示。 尽管看电视是人类最耗时的活动之一,文献却将其对福祉的潜在负面影响作为非理性行为的典型例子加以讨论。我们首次利用电视对社会的影响研究中的一个新情境,全面探讨这一可能存在的悖论:在20世纪80年代末的一项自然实验中,西德少数地理范围有限的地区的居民通过地面广播频率接收商业电视。丰富的面板数据与精确计算的频率信号相结合,使我们能够先确定各地区能否接收到商业电视如何影响时间分配,再考察其对个体福祉随时间推移的影响。与以往研究相反,我们未发现电视观看量增加时对健康产生负面影响的证据。就生活满意度而言,我们甚至发现了正向效应,且该效应在多种敏感性分析和不同电视观众子群体中均保持稳健。我们还结合支出数据和自行另行开展的调查所提供的证据,讨论研究结果的外部有效性及可能的机制,并得出结论:关于看电视影响福祉的相关性证据,可能由负向自我选择驱动。

Abstract

• We exploit quasi-random differences in regional media access in West Germany. • There is credible evidence for a positive effect of TV on the well-being of adults. • Rich survey data from various sources reveal the behavioral responses to TV access. • Negative correlations between TV and well-being are likely driven by self-selection. • We discuss a variety of relevant implications from the perspective of public policy. While watching television is one of the most time-consuming human activities, its potential negative effects on well-being are discussed in the literature as a prime example of irrational behavior. We are the first to comprehensively address this possible paradox by exploiting a novel setting in the research on the effects of television for society: a natural experiment in the late 1980s where people in a few geographically restricted areas of West Germany received commercial TV via terrestrial frequencies. Rich panel data combined with precisely calculated frequency signals allow us to determine how regional availability of commercial TV affects time-use, before investigating the implications for individual well-being over time. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence of negative health impacts when TV consumption increases. For life satisfaction, we even find a positive effect, which is robust across various sensitivity analyses and subgroups of TV viewers. By also considering evidence from expenditure data and from our own separately conducted surveys, we discuss the external validity of our findings as well as possible mechanisms and conclude that correlational evidence on the well-being effects of TV viewing could be driven by negative self-selection.
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