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政治参选的程序性壁垒:性别、劝退效应与候选人持续参选

Procedural Barriers to Political Candidacy: Gender, Discouragement and Candidate Persistence
The Economic Journal · 2025 · Marco Faravelli、Umair Khalil、Sundar Ponnusamy

中文摘要

印度选举中的一项程序性规定要求候选人缴纳一笔数额不高的保证金;若得票数不足总票数的六分之一,该保证金将被没收。保证金被没收使女性在下一次选举中再次参选的概率下降13.3个百分点(相对效应幅度为68%)。我们未发现男性存在此类效应。这些效应具有持续性,长期来看也会挫伤女性候选人的参选积极性。在性别规范更为保守的邦,这些结果更为明显;保证金被没收的女性候选人在下一次选举中获胜的概率也低11.8个百分点。我们还通过对具有代表性的选民开展调查实验,进一步拓展了分析。

Abstract

Abstract A procedural rule in Indian elections requires candidates to pay a nominal deposit, which is forfeited on obtaining fewer than one-sixth of the votes. Forfeiture diminishes female recontesting by 13.3 percentage points in the following election (relative effect size of 68%). We find no such effects for men. These effects are persistent and discourage female candidates in the long term as well. States with more regressive gender norms exhibit stronger findings, with female forfeiters also being 11.8 percentage points less likely to win the following election. We enhance our analysis by conducting a survey experiment with representative voters.
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