Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labour Demand Shocks
The Economic Journal · 2025 · Richard K. Mansfield
中文摘要
本文考察异质性劳动者与企业所面临的不同空间摩擦，如何塑造各类地方劳动力需求冲击在地域和人口群体间的归宿，并探讨这对地方经济举措应由哪一级政府出资具有何种启示。包含数百万次工作转换记录的纵向雇主—住户动态（LEHD）数据，使我们得以估计一个内容丰富的双边劳动力市场匹配模型。该模型针对企业构成和地方区域各异的多种地方需求冲击生成模拟预测。短期内，距冲击地点10英里以内的劳动者仅获得全国福利（就业）增益的11.2%（6.6%），而至少35.9%（62.0%）的增益归于州外劳动者，尽管距离最近的劳动者人均所受影响大得多。按人口类别划分的地方归宿对冲击构成非常敏感，但不同冲击在距冲击地点较远的区域产生的人口群体归宿相似。此外，州或全国层面归宿中残余的异质性，可能会逆转地方层面不同人口群体所受异质性影响的模式。总体而言，结果表明，使用远距离地区作为对照组的简化式方法可以准确估计地方冲击对当地劳动者的影响，但地方影响的分布并不能很好地近似冲击在全州或全国层面的归宿。
Abstract
This paper examines how spatial frictions that differ among heterogeneous workers and establishments shape the geographic and demographic incidence of alternative local labour demand shocks, with implications for the appropriate level of government at which to fund local economic initiatives. Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data featuring millions of job transitions facilitate estimation of a rich two-sided labour market assignment model. The model generates simulated forecasts of many alternative local demand shocks featuring different establishment compositions and local areas. Workers within 10 miles receive only 11.2% (6.6%) of nationwide welfare (employment) short-run gains, with at least 35.9% (62.0%) accruing to out-of-state workers, despite much larger per-worker impacts for the closest workers. Local incidence by demographic category is very sensitive to shock composition, but different shocks produce similar demographic incidence further from the shock. Furthermore, the remaining heterogeneity in incidence at the state or national level can reverse patterns of heterogeneous demographic impacts at the local level. Overall, the results suggest that reduced-form approaches using distant locations as controls can produce accurate estimates of local shock impacts on local workers, but that the distribution of local impacts badly approximates shocks' statewide or national incidence.