Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labour Demand Shocks
The Economic Journal · 2025 · [{"name": "Richard K. Mansfield", "affiliation": ["University of Colorado Boulder", "University of Colorado System"]}]
中文摘要
本文考察在异质性劳动者与用人单位之间存在差异的空间摩擦如何塑造各种不同地方劳动需求冲击的地理与人口(统计)归宿，并由此讨论应由哪一级政府为地方经济举措提供资金。包含数百万次工作转换的纵向雇主—家庭动态(LEHD)数据，使得估计一个丰富的双边劳动力市场配置(assignment)模型成为可能。该模型对具有不同用人单位构成与不同地区的多种备选地方需求冲击生成模拟预测。尽管对距离最近的劳动者而言人均影响要大得多，位于10英里以内的劳动者仅获得全国福利(就业)短期收益的11.2%(6.6%)，至少35.9%(62.0%)归于州外劳动者。按人口统计类别划分的地方归宿对冲击构成非常敏感，但在距冲击更远处，不同冲击产生的人口(统计)归宿趋于相似。此外，在州或全国层面剩余的归宿异质性，可能逆转地方层面异质性人口(统计)影响的格局。总体而言，结果表明，以远距离地区作为对照组的简约式(reduced-form)方法能够准确估计地方冲击对本地劳动者的影响，但地方影响的分布严重偏离冲击在全州或全国范围的归宿。
Abstract
This paper examines how spatial frictions that differ among heterogeneous workers and establishments shape the geographic and demographic incidence of alternative local labour demand shocks, with implications for the appropriate level of government at which to fund local economic initiatives. Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data featuring millions of job transitions facilitate estimation of a rich two-sided labour market assignment model. The model generates simulated forecasts of many alternative local demand shocks featuring different establishment compositions and local areas. Workers within 10 miles receive only 11.2% (6.6%) of nationwide welfare (employment) short-run gains, with at least 35.9% (62.0%) accruing to out-of-state workers, despite much larger per-worker impacts for the closest workers. Local incidence by demographic category is very sensitive to shock composition, but different shocks produce similar demographic incidence further from the shock. Furthermore, the remaining heterogeneity in incidence at the state or national level can reverse patterns of heterogeneous demographic impacts at the local level. Overall, the results suggest that reduced-form approaches using distant locations as controls can produce accurate estimates of local shock impacts on local workers, but that the distribution of local impacts badly approximates shocks' statewide or national incidence.