Retrieval Failures and Consumption Smoothing: A Field Experiment on Seasonal Poverty
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2026 · Ned Augenblick、Brooke Kelsey Jack、Supreet Kaur、Felix Masiye、Nicholas Swanson
中文摘要
人们在决策时可能无法回忆并使用其已知信息。我们实证研究了此类“提取失败”是否会扭曲赞比亚农民的消费平滑行为，这些农民的收入来源于一年一度的收获，并在此后一年中将其花完。我们记录到，个人对即将到来的支出低估了50%，从而为储蓄不足创造了空间。为改善回忆，我们对一项干预进行了随机化，该干预促使人们按类别联想思考其未来支出——而不提供任何外部信息或指导。受干预个体将“记住的”支出增加了36%–60%；正如记忆文献所预测的，效应集中在细小、不规则和随机的项目上。即时支出下降，在干预六周后，受干预家庭持有高出15%的储蓄。随后，他们带着额外一个月的储蓄进入饥饿季——即一年中消费通常急剧下降的最后几个月——从而导致全年支出分布更平坦。家庭利用增加的储蓄为额外的农业投资提供自我融资，使得下一年的农作物收入增加9%。我们在低收入美国人群中复制了该干预对信念的影响，表明提取失败在不同环境和人群中具有普适性。
Abstract
Abstract People may fail to recall and use information they already know when making decisions. We empirically investigate whether such “retrieval failures” distort consumption-smoothing behavior among Zambian farmers, who derive their income from one annual harvest and spend it over the course of the year. We document that individuals underestimate upcoming spending by 50%, creating scope for undersaving. To improve recall, we randomize an intervention that prompts people to think through their future expenses associatively in categories—without providing any external information or guidance. Treated individuals increase “remembered” expenses by 36%–60%; as predicted by the memory literature, effects are concentrated among small, irregular, and stochastic items. Immediate spending drops and, six weeks after the intervention, treated households hold 15% higher savings. They subsequently enter the hungry season—the final months of the year when consumption typically declines sharply—with one additional month of savings, leading to a flatter spending profile over the year. Households use the increased savings to self-finance additional farm investment, resulting in a 9% increase in the next year’s crop revenue. We replicate the intervention’s effect on beliefs among low-income Americans, suggesting that retrieval failures generalize across settings and populations.