Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and Stimulus in the U.K.
中文摘要
本文利用2004—2012年英国全部房产交易的行政数据,考察房产交易税(“印花税”)对住房市场的扭曲效应。两类准实验变异使我们得以获得有说服力的图形结果:(i)在门槛房价处税负不连续跳变所形成的缺口(notches),(ii)由永久性改革与特定价格区间内的临时性刺激所形成的时间变异。利用缺口,我们发现交易税对房价的影响很大,且对交易税变化的动态调整非常迅速。利用税制改革与刺激政策,我们发现交易税对购房时点与成交量的影响同样很大。例如,临时取消交易税会在短期内刺激住房市场活动增加20%(源于时点效应与广延边际反应),而在政策退出后活动会出现较小幅度的回落(因时点效应被抵消)。由于搬迁与消费支出之间的互补性,这些刺激效应转化为GDP效应,其规模远大于针对其他形式财政刺激所发现的结果。
Abstract
Using administrative data on the universe of property transactions in the UK from 2004-2012, we provide evidence on the distortionary effects of property transaction taxes (“stamp duty”) on the housing market. Two sources of quasi-experimental variation allow us to obtain compelling graphical results: (i) notches created by discontinuous jumps in tax liability at threshold property prices, (ii) time variation created by permanent reforms and temporary stimulus in specific price brackets. Using notches, we find that the effect of transaction taxes on house prices is large and that dynamic adjustment to changes in transaction taxes is very fast. Using tax reforms and stimulus, we find that the effects of transaction taxes on the timing and volume of house purchases are also large. For example, a temporary elimination of transaction taxes stimulates housing market activity by 20 % in the short run (due to timing and extensive responses) followed by a smaller slump in activity after the policy is withdrawn (as the timing effect is cancelled out). Due to the complementarities between moving house and consumer spending, these stimulus effects translate into GDP effects that are considerably larger than what has been found for other forms of fiscal stimulus.