Failure to launch: Measuring the impact of sales tax nexus standards on business activity
中文摘要
我们首次对销售税征收义务（即联结，nexus）与企业活动之间的关系进行经验分析。近期最高法院在Wayfair案中的裁决颠覆了长期存在的销售税联结的实体存在要求，并为各州对在买方所在州拥有足够经济存在的远程销售商执行销售税征收义务打开了大门。为有助于当前的政策讨论，我们利用州级面板数据考察1979年至2014年间销售税联结的变化与企业活动的变化之间的关联程度。我们的结果表明，销售税税基广度每增加1个百分点，会带来企业数量和营业机构数量增加0.14%、就业水平提高0.2%。此外，具有联结的在线企业占比每增加1个百分点，会带来（小型）企业数量增加0.1%，因为销售税征收义务被分散到更大比例的企业之中。一项模拟的结果显示，若逆转所观测到的税基收窄的一半，在该时期内本可创造多达90,350家企业、113,600个营业机构和290万个就业岗位。这些结果为后Wayfair时代更为中性的联结标准将带来的销售税税基恢复的未来影响提供了提示性证据。
Abstract
We present the first empirical analysis of the relationship between sales tax collection obligations, or nexus, and business activity. The recent Supreme Court decision in the Wayfair case upended the long-standing physical presence requirement for sales tax nexus, and opened the door for states to enforce sales tax collection obligations on remote sellers that have sufficient economic presence in the buyer’s state. In an effort to inform the ongoing policy discussion, we make use of state-level panel data to explore the extent to which changes in sales tax nexus were associated with changes in firm activity between 1979 and 2014. Our results suggest that increasing sales tax base breadth by 1 percentage point generates 0.14 percent additional firms and establishments and 0.2 percent higher employment levels. Furthermore, increasing the share of online companies with nexus by 1 percentage point translates into 0.1 percent additional (small) firms as the sales-tax-collection obligation is dispersed among a larger share of firms. Results from a simulation show that unwinding half of the observed base narrowing could have generated as many as 90,350 firms, 113,600 establishments, and 2.9 million jobs during the time period. These results provide suggestive evidence of the future impact of sales tax base recovery that will result from more neutral nexus standards in the post-Wayfair world.