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职业生涯早期冲击对代际流动的影响

Impact of an Early-Career Shock on Intergenerational Mobility
Journal of Labor Economics · 2024 · Martti Kaila、Emily Nix、Krista Riukula

中文摘要

子女与父母的收入高度相关,但职业生涯早期冲击如何促成这种相关性,目前所知甚少。本文聚焦于一种后果重大的劳动力市场冲击:失业。我们记录了三个新发现。第一,与出生于收入分布最高20%家庭的成年子女相比,出生于最低20%家庭的成年子女在失业后的失业(持续)程度高出一倍,收入损失高出154%。第二,对于受到失业冲击的人群,这使收入排名的代际相关性(rank-rank correlation)提高了30%。第三,较富裕的父母会在成年子女失业后为其提供职业机会,这与富裕父母带来的优势持续至成年后很久的现象一致。

Abstract

Children’s and parents’ incomes are highly correlated, yet little is known about how early-career shocks contribute to this correlation. This paper focuses on a consequential labor market shock: job loss. We document three new results. First, adult children born into the bottom 20% of the income distribution have double the unemployment following job loss compared with those from the top 20% and 154% higher earnings losses. Second, this increases the rank-rank correlation 30% for those impacted. Third, richer parents provide career opportunities to their adult children after job loss, consistent with advantages from wealthy parents persisting well into adulthood.
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