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阻碍绿色能源:印度太阳能电力市场中的交易对手风险

Holding up Green Energy: Counterparty Risk in the Indian Solar Power Market
Econometrica · 2026 · Nicholas Ryan

中文摘要

本文研究要挟(hold-up)风险如何影响采购。我使用了印度全部太阳能电力拍卖的数据。印度的制度背景使本文能够对交易对手风险进行清晰估计,因为由相同企业在相同邦设立的太阳能电站,其采购拍卖或者由风险较高的邦政府自身居间组织,或者由值得信赖的中央政府居间组织。研究发现,一个邦平均水平的交易对手风险会使太阳能电力价格提高10%。由于绿色能源需求具有弹性,这一风险溢价大幅减少了投资。由中央政府居间组织合同交易可消除交易对手风险溢价。

Abstract

This paper studies how the risk of hold‐up affects procurement. I use data on the universe of solar power auctions in India. The Indian context allows clean estimates of counterparty risk, because solar plants set up in the same states, by the same firms, are procured in auctions intermediated by either risky states themselves or the trusted central government. I find that the counterparty risk of an average state increases solar prices by 10%. This risk premium sharply reduces investment, because demand for green energy is elastic. Contract intermediation by the central government eliminates the counterparty risk premium.
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