Leadership in Social Movements: Evidence from the “Forty-Eighters” in the Civil War
中文摘要
本文研究领导者在最终演变为美国内战的废奴社会运动中的作用。我们的分析围绕一个自然实验展开：1848—1849 年失败的德国革命领袖被驱逐至美国，成为帮助动员联邦军志愿兵的废奴运动参与者。四八派定居的城镇，联邦军入伍人数高出三分之二。其影响通过地方报纸与社交俱乐部发挥作用。超出入伍决定之外，四八派还降低了其所属连队在战争期间的逃亡率。从长期看，四八派所在的城镇更有可能成立全国有色人种协进会（NAACP）的地方分会。（JEL D74, J15, J45, J61, N31, N41）
Abstract
This paper studies the role of leaders in the social movement against slavery that culminated in the US Civil War. Our analysis is organized around a natural experiment: leaders of the failed German revolution of 1848–1849 were expelled to the United States and became antislavery campaigners who helped mobilize Union Army volunteers. Towns where Forty-Eighters settled show two-thirds higher Union Army enlistments. Their influence worked through local newspapers and social clubs. Going beyond enlistment decisions, Forty-Eighters reduced their companies’ desertion rate during the war. In the long run, Forty-Eighter towns were more likely to form a local chapter of the NAACP. (JEL D74, J15, J45, J61, N31, N41)