量刑决策的异质性影响
Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions
Journal of Labor Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Andrew Jordan", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Ezra Karger", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Derek Neal", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们考察了1990年至2007年间在伊利诺伊州芝加哥提交的70,581起重罪法院案件。我们利用案件随机分配来评估法官分配与量刑决策对新指控出现的影响。我们分别对初犯者和累犯者估计了处理方程与结果方程。在边际案件中，监禁使初犯者的再犯率大幅且持久下降；然而，在边际累犯者中，监禁并未使新重罪指控发生率产生持久下降。我们的结果引发了对量刑规则普遍性的担忧——这些规则建议或规定对初犯者给予相对宽大的处理。
Abstract
We examine 70,581 felony court cases filed in Chicago, Illinois, from 1990 to 2007. We exploit case randomization to assess the impact of judge assignment and sentencing decisions on the arrival of new charges. We estimate separate treatment and outcome equations for first and repeat offenders. In marginal cases, incarceration creates large and lasting reductions in recidivism among first offenders. Yet among marginal repeat offenders, incarceration creates no lasting reductions in the incidence of new felony charges. Our results raise concerns about the ubiquity of sentencing rules that recommend or dictate relative leniency for first offenders.