涨上去未必降下来：增值税税负归宿的不对称性

中文摘要

本文提供的证据表明，价格对增值税（VAT）上调的反应显著强于对增值税下调的反应。第一，利用两次看似外生的增值税变动，我们表明价格对增值税上调的反应幅度是对下调反应幅度的两倍。第二，我们表明这种不对称性导致更高的均衡利润和加成率。第三，我们发现利润率较低的企业尤其可能对增值税变动做出不对称反应。第四，这些不对称的价格效应在增值税变动发生数年后依然持续。第五，利用1996年至2015年欧盟的所有增值税变动，我们发现不对称程度类似。

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that prices respond significantly more strongly to increases than to decreases in value-added taxes (VATs). First, using two plausibly exogenous VAT changes, we show that prices respond twice as much to VAT increases as to VAT decreases. Second, we show that this asymmetry results in higher equilibrium profits and markups. Third, we find that firms operating with low profit margins are particularly likely to respond asymmetrically to VAT changes. Fourth, these asymmetric price effects persist several years after VAT changes take place. Fifth, using all VAT changes in the European Union from 1996 to 2015, we find similar levels of asymmetry.