American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2022 · Ekaterina Jardim、Mark C. Long、Robert D. Plotnick、Emma van Inwegen、Jacob L. Vigdor、Hilary Wething
中文摘要
2015年西雅图将最低工资提高至最高11美元，2016年提高至最高13美元。我们利用华盛顿州行政数据对其影响进行了两项互补分析。相对于用合成控制法确定的该州外围地区，以总工作小时数衡量的工资低于原最低工资两倍的总体就业出现下降。这一降幅的一部分反映了岗位向高于该门槛的工资转移；总体分析可能高估了就业效应。将西雅图个体工人与外围地区的对应工人匹配后进行的纵向分析显示，继续就业的概率没有变化，但工作小时数显著减少，对经验较少的工人尤为如此。工作流转率有所下降，新工人被雇用到低工资岗位的数量也出现下降。分析表明，总体就业弹性介于-0.2至-2.0之间，短期内集中于集约边际，且在缺乏经验的工人中最大。（JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23）
Abstract
Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)