The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund
中文摘要
自1982年以来，所有阿拉斯加居民每年都收到来自阿拉斯加永久基金的现金分红。利用当前人口调查（Current Population Survey）和合成控制方法，本文表明该分红对就业没有影响，并使兼职工作增加了1.8个百分点（17%）。对微观与宏观经济效应的校准表明，实证结果与现金刺激当地经济——一种一般均衡效应——的解释相一致。不可贸易部门的就业反应比可贸易部门更为正面。总体而言，结果表明普遍且永久性的现金转移支付并不会显著降低总就业。(JEL E24, H24, H75, I38, J22, R23)
Abstract
Since 1982, all Alaskan residents have received a yearly cash dividend from the Alaska Permanent Fund. Using the Current Population Survey and a synthetic control method, this paper shows that the dividend had no effect on employment and increased part-time work by 1.8 percentage points (17 percent). A calibration of microeconomic and macroeconomic effects suggests that the empirical results are consistent with cash stimulating the local economy—a general equilibrium effect. Nontradable sectors have a more positive employment response than tradable sectors. Overall, the results suggest that a universal and permanent cash transfer does not significantly decrease aggregate employment. (JEL E24, H24, H75, I38, J22, R23)