Political Fragmentation and Government Stability: Evidence from Local Governments in Spain
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2022 · Felipe Carozzi、Davide Cipullo、Luca Repetto
中文摘要
本文研究政治碎片化如何影响政府稳定性。采用断点回归设计,我们发现地方议会中每增加一个获得席位代表的政党,现任政府被推翻的概率上升 5 个百分点。额外政党的进入通过降低单一政党多数席位的概率,以及在没有此类多数席位时增加政府的不稳定性,从而影响稳定性。我们结合一个包含政府不稳定性的组阁讨价还价模型来解读我们的结果。(JEL C78, D72, H70)
Abstract
This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability. (JEL C78, D72, H70)