Recessions, Mortality, and Migration Bias: Evidence from the Lancashire Cotton Famine
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2022 · Vellore Arthi、Brian Beach、William Walker Hanlon
中文摘要
我们考察兰开夏棉荒的健康效应。兰开夏棉荒是由美国内战引发的英国棉纺织制造地区的急剧衰退。迁移是对这一衰退的重要反应，但正如我们所记录的，迁移也带来了若干实证上的挑战，我们通过引入一种新的方法论路径克服了这些挑战。我们的结果表明，这次衰退提高了受雇于棉纺织业家庭的死亡率。我们还记录了衰退对受影响地区提供非贸易服务的家庭的局部溢出效应。(JEL E32, I12, J63, N13, N33, N63, N93)
Abstract
We examine the health effects of the Lancashire Cotton Famine, a sharp downturn in Britain's cotton textile manufacturing regions that was induced by the US Civil War. Migration was an important response to this downturn, but as we document, migration also introduces a number of empirical challenges, which we overcome by introducing a new methodological approach. Our results indicate that the recession increased mortality among households employed in the cotton textile industry. We also document localized spillover effects on households providing nontradable services in the areas affected by the recession. (JEL E32, I12, J63, N13, N33, N63, N93)