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失业保险作为工人纪律约束的松弛机制?来自扫描数据的证据

Unemployment Insurance as a Worker Indiscipline Device? Evidence from Scanner Data
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2020 · Lester R. Lusher、Geoffrey C. Schnorr、Rebecca Taylor

中文摘要

我们通过将大衰退期间各州—周层面失业保险(UI)给付期限的合理外生变化与来自个体超市收银员的高频生产率指标相匹配,提供了失业保险事前道德风险效应的因果证据。在包含日期与收银机—收银员固定效应的模型中,我们识别出失业保险给付与工人生产率之间存在一个幅度不大但统计显著的负向关系。这一效应在经验更丰富且生产率较低的收银员中最为明显,而对这部分人而言,失业保险的扩张尤为相关。基于美国时间使用调查的补充分析显示,在失业保险给付期限延长的时期,逃避工作的行为也出现了类似的增加。

Abstract

We provide causal evidence of an ex ante moral hazard effect of Unemployment Insurance (UI) by matching plausibly exogenous changes in UI benefit duration across state-weeks during the Great Recession to high-frequency productivity measures from individual supermarket cashiers. Estimating models with day and cashier-register fixed effects, we identify a modest but statistically significant negative relationship between UI benefits and worker productivity. This effect is strongest for more experienced and less productive cashiers, for whom UI expansions are especially relevant. Additional analyses from the American Time Use Survey reveal a similar increase in shirking during periods with increased UI benefit durations.
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