First among equals: The first place effect and political promotion in multi-member plurality elections
中文摘要
我们通过考察菲律宾立法议员竞选并赢得更高职位的决策, 研究多席位相对多数制选举制度中基于排名的决策的影响。通过聚焦于多席位相对多数制选举, 我们在担任相同职位且得票数相近的政治家之间识别排名的效应。为识别排名的因果效应, 我们在村、市镇和省层级进行了基于选情接近选举的断点回归。我们的主要结果是第一名效应: 现任第一名在未来选举中参选 (获胜) 的可能性比现任第二名高 5–9% (1–4%)。第一名效应在各类排名效应中是独一无二的: 后续的排名比较所产生的结果明显更弱或不显著。进一步的证据表明, 各种潜在机制——政党一致性、策略性投票、媒体曝光度差异或第一名更佳的表现——似乎均无法解释我们的结果。这些结果增进了我们对排名效应与选举制度相互作用之多种方式的理解。
Abstract
We study the impact of rank-based decision-making in a multi-member plurality electoral system by examining the decisions of Philippine legislative councilors to run for and win higher office. By focusing on multi-member plurality elections, we identify the effect of rank amongst politicians that hold the same office and received a similar number of votes. To identify the causal effect of rank, we conduct a close-elections RD at the village, municipality, and province levels. Our main result is the first place effect: incumbent first placers are 5–9% (1–4%) more likely to run (win) in future elections than incumbent second placers. The first place effect is unique among rank effects: subsequent rank comparisons yield substantially weaker or insignificant results. Further evidence suggests that a variety of potential mechanisms—party alignment, strategic voting, differential levels of media exposure or the better performance of first placers—do not seem to explain our results. These results improve our understanding of the variety of ways rank effects interact with electoral systems.