Attribution bias in major decisions: Evidence from the United States Military Academy
Journal of Public Economics · 2021 · Kareem Haggag、Richard Wells Patterson、Nolan G Pope、Aaron Feudo
中文摘要
利用行政数据, 我们研究了归因偏差在一项高风险、影响重大的决策——大学专业选择——中的作用。具体而言, 我们考察了学生在修读一门通识教育课程期间所经历的疲劳, 对其是否选择与该课程对应专业的影响。为此, 我们利用了美国军事学院学生课程表的条件随机分配。我们发现, 相较于被分配到该课程较晚时段的学生, 被分配到通识教育课程清晨 (上午 7:30) 教学班的学生选择该学科作为专业的可能性约低 10%。对于在当天较晚开始的通识教育课程之前紧接连上一门或多门课程所产生的疲劳, 我们发现了类似的效应。最后, 我们证明该结果模式与归因偏差相一致, 且难以与竞争性解释相调和。
Abstract
Using administrative data, we study the role of attribution bias in a high-stakes, consequential decision: the choice of a college major. Specifically, we examine the influence of fatigue experienced during exposure to a general education course on whether students choose the major corresponding to that course. To do so, we exploit the conditional random assignment of student course schedules at the United States Military Academy. We find that students who are assigned to an early morning (7:30 AM) section of a general education course are roughly 10% less likely to major in that subject, relative to students assigned to a later time slot for the course. We find similar effects for fatigue generated by having one or more back-to-back courses immediately prior to a general education course that starts later in the day. Finally, we demonstrate that the pattern of results is consistent with attribution bias and difficult to reconcile with competing explanations.