生命早期暴露于大萧条与长期健康及经济结果
Early-Life Exposure to the Great Depression and Long-Term Health and Economic Outcomes
Journal of Human Resources · 2023 · [{"name": "Valentina Duque", "affiliation": ["American University", "Institute of Public Affairs"]}, {"name": "Lauren Schmitz", "affiliation": ["University of Wisconsin–Madison"]}]
中文摘要
利用大萧条时期州—年份层面的变异，我们发现，早年经历的不利经济条件与壮年时期更差的劳动力市场表现，以及老年时期更低的经济福祉、更高的发病率和死亡率相关。随着幸存队列成员年龄增长，这些效应愈发明显，表明与年龄相关的生理损伤加速程度存在差异。利用多个数据来源，我们分析了儿童期与中年期的潜在机制。在评估大萧条时期出生队列的生育率和死亡率变化后，我们得出结论：这些效应很可能代表经济冲击对长期结果真实影响的下界估计。
Abstract
Using state-year-level variation from the Great Depression we show that adverse economic conditions experienced in early life are associated with worse labor market outcomes in prime-age years and worse economic wellbeing, morbidity, and mortality at older ages. These effects become more pronounced as surviving cohort members age, suggesting disparities in the acceleration of age-related physiological damage. Using multiple data sources, we analyze potential mechanisms in childhood and midlife. After evaluating changes in fertility and mortality rates for Depression-era birth cohorts, we conclude that these effects likely represent lower bound estimates of the true impacts of the economic shock on long-term outcomes.