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公民的极化程度如何?从底层出发测量意识形态

How Polarised are Citizens? Measuring Ideology from the Ground up
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Mirko Draca、Carlo Rasmus Schwarz

中文摘要

我们考察西方民主国家中公民的意识形态极化是否加剧。我们提出一种新方法,通过对政治调查数据应用潜在狄利克雷分配来识别个体意识形态。这一方法表明,除与传统左右光谱相关的问题外,与机构信心相关的问题在界定公民意识形态中发挥主导作用。我们分解了随时间推移总体中意识形态位置的变动,并测量极化程度。这揭示出一个由部分国家构成的子群体中存在“消失的中间地带”的证据,这些国家的公民从中间派意识形态转向反建制的“无政府主义”意识形态。这一趋势在美国尤为明显。

Abstract

Abstract We investigate whether the ideological polarisation of citizens has increased in Western democracies. We propose a novel methodology to identify individual ideologies by applying latent Dirichlet allocation to political survey data. This approach indicates that questions related to confidence in institutions play a leading role in defining citizen ideologies, in addition to the questions associated with the traditional left-right scale. We decompose the shift in ideological positions across the population over time and measure polarisation. This reveals evidence of a ‘disappearing centre’ in a sub-group of countries with citizens shifting away from centrist ideologies into anti-establishment ‘anarchist’ ideologies. This trend is especially pronounced for the United States.
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