Job Polarisation, Labour Market Fluidity and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
中文摘要
本文表明，岗位极化——即常规岗位的消失——正在改变劳动力市场的特征。这对通胀与失业之间的关系，即价格菲利普斯曲线，具有结构性含义。利用欧洲货币联盟的数据，并借助岗位极化在经济衰退期间加速这一事实，我们得到两个实证结果。第一，在经济下行期间职业结构变动更大的国家，其后菲利普斯曲线更为平坦。第二，大衰退与主权债务危机期间所经历的职业结构变动，解释了2002—18年期间该曲线平坦化的四分之一以上。随后，我们使用包含失业以及搜寻与匹配摩擦的新凯恩斯模型，揭示了一条劳动力市场特征作用于菲利普斯曲线斜率的渠道。劳动力市场流动性上升——即离职率与招聘率提高——会降低菲利普斯曲线的斜率。利用微观数据，我们发现欧洲货币联盟中非常规岗位的流动性更高。我们由此得出结论：岗位极化使菲利普斯曲线趋于平坦。
Abstract
Abstract This paper shows that job polarisation—i.e., the disappearance of routine jobs—is changing the characteristics of the labour market. This has structural implications for the relationship between inflation and unemployment, the price Phillips curve. Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarisation accelerates during recessions, we obtain two empirical results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter Phillips curve afterwards. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain more than a fourth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002–18 period. Then, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions, we highlight a channel through which labour market characteristics operate on the slope of the Phillips curve. Increasing labour market fluidity—i.e., a higher separation and hiring rate—decreases the slope of the Phillips curve. Using micro-data, we find that in the European Monetary Union non-routine jobs are more fluid. We conclude that job polarisation flattened the Phillips curve.