中文摘要
本文考察冲突对经济发展的长期影响, 聚焦于美国在老挝进行的"秘密战争"(1964–1973年)。我们的研究采用多种实证策略, 并利用关于轰炸行动、卫星影像和发展指标的数据, 表明在冲突正式结束近五十年后, 该时期遭受猛烈轰炸的地区经济发展水平仍然较低。轰炸强度增加一个标准差, 与人均GDP下降7.1%相关。我们证明了轰炸行动对人力资本积累、结构转型和迁移模式的持续影响, 并强调未爆炸弹药污染是传导这些效应的主要机制。
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964–73). Our study employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators to demonstrate that regions heavily bombed during this period experienced lower economic development almost fifty years after the conflict officially ended. A one-standard-deviation increase in bombing intensity is associated with a 7.1% decrease in GDP per capita. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation and migration patterns, stressing the role of unexploded ordnance contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission of these effects.