Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom across U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2021 · Fernando V. Ferreira、Joseph Gyourko
中文摘要
我们提供了关于上一轮美国住房繁荣起点的地点、时机、幅度与决定因素的新颖估计。住房周期不能被解读为单一的全美事件, 因为不同市场在长达十年的时间里先后开始繁荣, 其中一些市场甚至多次出现繁荣。一个基本面因素, 即潜在买家的收入, 能够解释价格增速初始跃升的一半, 而代表性不足的少数群体购房的扩张则无法解释。繁荣的起点也并非由次级抵押贷款提供融资, 而是通过常规方式融资。次级抵押贷款的份额确实随时间大幅上升, 但仅出现在数年滞后之后。
Abstract
Abstract We provide novel estimates of the location, timing, magnitude, and determinants of the start of the previous U.S. housing boom. The housing cycle cannot be interpreted as a single, national event, as different markets began to boom across a decade-long period, some of them multiple times. A fundamental factor, income of prospective buyers, can account for half of the initial jump in price growth, while expansion of purchases by underrepresented minorities cannot. The start of the boom also was financed conventionally, not by subprime mortgages. The latter's share did rise sharply over time, but only after a multiyear lag.