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基础设施投资的正溢出效应:管道扩建如何促进燃料转换

Positive Spillovers from Infrastructure Investment: How Pipeline Expansions Encourage Fuel Switching
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2021 · Jonathan B. Scott

中文摘要

本文研究美国管道基础设施在该国从煤炭向天然气能源转型中所起的作用。我将环境保护署的《汞与空气毒物标准》作为一项合理外生的干预加以利用,该标准促使许多燃煤电厂转换为天然气。将这一准实验变异与电厂对管道网络的原有邻近程度相结合,我在电厂转换的动态离散选择模型中分离出隐含的管道接入成本。关键模型结果表明,与基础设施相关的成本使90亿美元的减排未能实现,这表明管道扩建每英里可带来240万美元的外部收益。

Abstract

Abstract This paper studies the role of the U.S. pipeline infrastructure in the country's transition from coal to natural gas energy. I leverage the Environmental Protection Agency's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards as a plausibly exogenous intervention, which encouraged many coal plants to convert to natural gas. Combining this quasi-experimental variation with a plant's preexisting proximity to the pipeline network, I isolate implied pipeline connection costs within a dynamic discrete choice model of plant conversions. Key model results indicate that infrastructure-related costs prevent $9 billion in emissions reductions from taking place, suggesting a $2.4 million per mile external benefit of pipeline expansions.
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