Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Tushar Bharati、Michael Jetter、Muhammad Nauman Malik
中文摘要
为什么不同类型的信息与通信技术(ICT)与国内冲突发生率之间的关系存在差异?我们将单向信息通信技术(广播、电视)与双向信息通信技术(电话、互联网、社交媒体)区分开来,把能够实现单向广播的技术与促进对话的技术加以对比。前者主要使统治者能够向反叛者传递关于可获取租金的错误信息,根据我们的理论框架,这相应地降低了冲突的潜在可能性。然而,双向信息通信技术主要帮助反叛者克服沟通与协调问题,最终提高了冲突的潜在可能性。理论上预期,强有力的政治制度会削弱这些关系,但应仍无法逆转其方向。在实证上,我们在以下两方面观察到一致的模式:(i)国家层面的国内冲突面板分析,以及(ii)个体层面引出反政府态度的调查回答。广播和电视的可获得性与使用情况一致地表现为冲突发生率和反政府态度的负向预测因素——但在强有力的政治制度下这种表现较弱。对于移动电话、互联网和社交媒体的可获得性与使用情况,则出现了相反的结果。
Abstract
Why do different types of information and communications technologies (ICTs) differentially relate to civil conflict incidence? We distinguish one-way (radio; television) from two-way ICTs (phone; internet; social media), contrasting technologies enabling one-directional broadcasting against technologies facilitating dialogue. The former predominantly allow rulers to misinform rebels about attainable rents, which, according to our theoretical framework, consequentially reduces conflict potential. However, two-way ICTs primarily help rebels overcome communication and coordination problems, which ultimately increases conflict potential. Strong political institutions are predicted to weaken these relationships but should remain unable to overturn their signs. Empirically, we observe consistent patterns in (i) country-level panel analyses of civil conflict and (ii) individual-level survey responses eliciting anti-government attitudes. Radio and television availability and usage consistently emerge as negative predictors of conflict incidence and anti-government attitudes – but less so under strong political institutions. Opposite results materialize for mobile phone, internet, and social media availability and usage.