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税务稽查是否具有动态影响?——来自企业所得税行政数据的证据

Do tax audits have a dynamic impact? Evidence from corporate income tax administrative data
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Christos Kotsogiannis、Luca Salvadori、John Karangwa、Theonille Mukamana

中文摘要

本文利用一套独特的行政数据集(涵盖卢旺达全部行政申报记录),考察税务稽查对企业申报行为的影响。证据表明,税务稽查对稽查程序开始后三年内申报的企业所得和企业纳税义务具有正向影响。结果还表明,稽查类型至关重要。“全面”税务稽查对合规具有显著的正向效应,而“窄范围”税务稽查在稽查后三年期间既表现出正向效应也表现出负向效应,且净影响为负。从税收合规角度看,其含义是“窄范围”稽查是无效的,而更多地进行这类稽查、减少全面稽查可能对税收合规产生负面影响。因此,有效的税收合规策略要求对所有类型的稽查进行仔细评估。

Abstract

Making use of a unique administrative data set consisting of the universe of administrative filings in Rwanda, this paper investigates the impact of tax audits on businesses’ reporting behaviour. The evidence suggests that tax audits have a positive impact on corporate income and corporate tax liabilities reported for three years after the start of the audit process. The results also suggest that the type of audit matters. While ‘comprehensive’ tax audits have a significant positive effect on compliance, ‘narrow-scope’ tax audits exhibit both a positive and a negative effect during a three-year period after the audit, with the net impact being negative. The implication of this, from a tax compliance perspective, is that ‘narrow-scope’ audits are ineffective and that doing more of those and less of comprehensive ones might have a negative impact on tax compliance. Effective tax compliance strategy therefore requires the careful evaluation of all types of audits.
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