Journal of the European Economic Association · 2022 · Florin G. Maican、Matilda Orth、Mark J. Roberts、Van Anh Vuong
中文摘要
本文估计了瑞典十二个制造行业的企业研发投资动态结构模型, 并利用该模型测算研发回报率, 模拟贸易限制对投资激励的影响。出口市场利润是研发预期回报的重要来源。研究发现, 研发支出对企业生产率的影响在出口市场上大于在国内市场。反事实模拟显示, 贸易限制同时降低研发的预期回报与研发投资水平, 从而削弱贸易动态收益的一个重要来源。对瑞典出口征收10%的关税, 使中位数企业的研发预期收益降低18.6%, 并使高技术行业的研发支出额降低7.6%; 低技术行业的相应降幅分别为20.6%和5.5%。应对出口关税的研发调整主要发生在集约边际而非扩展边际上。
Abstract
Abstract This article estimates a dynamic structural model of firm R&D investment in twelve Swedish manufacturing industries and uses it to measure rates of return to R&D and to simulate the impact of trade restrictions on the investment incentives. Export market profits are a substantial source of the expected return to R&D. R&D spending is found to have a larger impact on firm productivity in the export market than in the domestic market. Counterfactual simulations show that trade restrictions lower both the expected return to R&D and R&D investment level, thus reducing an important source of the dynamic gains from trade. A 10% tariff on Swedish exports reduces the expected benefits of R&D for the median firm by 18.6% and lowers the amount of R&D spending by 7.6% in the high-tech industries. The corresponding reductions in the low-tech industries are 20.6% and 5.5%, respectively. R&D adjustments in response to export tariffs mainly occur on the intensive, rather than the extensive, margin.