AER: Insights · 2021 · Ole Agersnap、Owen M. Zidar
中文摘要
本文采用直接投影法估计资本利得税对州一级资本利得实现的影响，进而构建一个在联邦一级确定收入最大化税率的框架。我们发现，在10年期内，税收收入相对于税率的弹性为−0.5至−0.3，这表明资本利得税减税不能自我补偿，税率提高5个百分点将带来每年180亿至300亿美元的联邦税收收入。我们的长期估计得出，收入最大化的资本利得税率为38%至47%。(JEL E62, H25, H71)
Abstract
This paper uses a direct-projections approach to estimate the effect of capital gains taxation on realizations at the state level and then develops a framework for determining revenue-maximizing rates at the federal level. We find that the elasticity of revenues with respect to the tax rate over a 10-year period is −0.5 to −0.3, indicating that capital gains tax cuts do not pay for themselves and that a 5 percentage point rate increase would yield $18 to $30 billion in annual federal tax revenue. Our long-run estimates yield revenue-maximizing capital gains tax rates of 38 to 47 percent. (JEL E62, H25, H71)