AER: Insights · 2021 · Pablo Fajgelbaum、Amit Kumar Khandelwal、Wookun Kim、Cristiano Mantovani、Edouard Schaal
中文摘要
我们研究通勤网络内针对 COVID-19 的最优动态封锁。我们的框架整合了经典的空间流行病学模型与贸易模型, 并将其应用于初始病毒传播程度不同的城市: 首尔、大邱和纽约市都会区 (NYM)。空间封锁造成的收入损失远小于统一封锁。在初始冲击较大的 NYM 和大邱, 最优封锁先限制流向中心区的人流, 再逐步放松; 而在首尔, 最优封锁在时间维度上变化较小、在空间维度上变化较大。实际的通勤削减在大邱和 NYM 的中心地区过于不足, 而在整个首尔则过于严格。 (JEL H51, I12, I18, R23, R41)
Abstract
We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against COVID-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu, and the New York City metropolitan area (NYM). Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns. In the NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting reductions were too weak in central locations in Daegu and the NYM and too strong across Seoul. (JEL H51, I12, I18, R23, R41)